Friday, September 25, 2020

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Analyses

This section contains all research and opinion based posts by Spearhead Research team. All registered users are welcome to post their original work under this section.

COVID-19 Panic

COVID 19 – Panic Mode

The fact is that the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continues to witness nothing short of a bloodbath as the KSE-100 continues to decline and the Market is being halted on a daily basis as the triggers are being tripped. Close to Rs.400 Billion has been wiped off in value - the biggest decline in 10 years. The Rupee continues to fall against the USD and has lost close to Rs.4.00 and fallen to Rs.159 in the interbank market. Gold continues to rise. The Growth rate has been revised by Moody’s to around 2.5 per cent, which is also starting to appear optimistic. Utter mayhem. Yet, this is not an isolated event for Pakistan, but something that is being witnessed on a global scale. Other economies have been more proactive and put in place measures to try and reduce the fallout from the current situation
US Afghan Beyond the Agreement

Beyond the Agreement

Pakistan actively supported with multiple initiatives to bring about the agreement and has the most to gain from a stable political arrangement in Afghanistan and an end to violence. Pakistan would then like to see the IS-K and TTP marginalized because unlike the Taliban these have agendas outside Afghanistan and can be manipulated by those who have been using them to undermine Pakistan. Pakistan would therefore want a good relationship with President Ashraf Ghani and his government and has already said so. Reciprocation from President Ghani would be vastly helpful for progress.
U.S.-Taliban agreement

Agreement in Afghanistan—At Last!

Now is the time for Pakistan to put all facets of its diplomacy especially economic diplomacy to work. We need to regain the Afghan market and move our banking, trade and financial institutions into Afghanistan and extend all our facilities to the future political dispensation in Afghanistan. In due course Pakistan may host talks with the Taliban and reach out for discussions with the Afghan government. We may also consider hosting talks between Iran, the Central Asian States bordering Afghanistan, Russia and China---in a carry-over of previous dialogue formats
carnage in Delhi

Carnage in Delhi

North East Delhi burnt as crazed Hindu mobs rampaged and any delusions based on government denials were dispelled by actual videos of the ongoing violence. A judge of the Delhi High Court ruled to save some injured Muslims and he has since been transferred. And all this during President Trumps’ visit to India
Modi vs India

Right and Wrong

India dolls itself up to welcome President Trump it will ingratiate itself deeper into the US-Israel nexus and no doubt move further into the US embrace. China’s economic downturn in the wake of the virus attack will spark discussion on future containment policies. Nothing can, however, hide the fact that India is getting increasingly isolated and facing an economic decline. The present Indian obsession with Pakistan and its refusal to have bilateral talks belittles it.

Something has to Give

The lack of resolve exhibited by the Government is also evident from the fact that the Supreme Court of Pakistan has been forced into taking Executive level decisions that should have been within the ambit of the Government. This again demonstrates that the Government has accepted its inability to enforce its writ and as a result a vacuum has been created that is being filled by another State Institution

Afghan Peace Deal—At Last?

The fact is that there are other groups in Afghanistan that may try to disrupt talks through targeted attacks or may sow discord in Taliban ranks and wean away fighters from the Taliban side.

ECONOMIC RESTRUCTURING

The mistakes of the past are being repeated according to Dr. Mian. The reliance has continued to be on external borrowings, with IMF support and maintenance of an over-valued Rupee which severely hampered exports. Today Pakistan’s debt has the lowest maturity among peer countries. As a result, inflows continue to be short-term with maturities in the 3 -12 month range. Of the foreign investment of US$2.25 Billion only US$24 Million went towards the longer term Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs)

INDIA TODAY

What has been done to Kashmir and the atrocities and repression being committed there is being seen by the world. The brutality with which protests are being put down by Indian police is also being condemned widely. The long term repercussions for India is something that Indians need to judge for themselves. They should also see what impact this is having on their police and security forces--though this is not something new.

It’s Lonely at the Top

The real reason for the wasted tax money was because of the size of the delegations that accompanied them and the demands that these people made on the embassy staff. Rather than extolling sponsors and depending on them, the Prime Minister would do well to dwell on the Spartan and austere style of his visits