The event to highlight India’s fiasco in February 2019 included a short documentary that highlighted all the facets of the reckless actions of Prime Minister Modi that led to disaster and showed the world how India could trigger a conflict between two nuclear armed states. By now all the facts are confirmed. The attack in Pulwama on Indian security forces was by a disgruntled and maltreated Kashmiri youth. Modis immediate near spontaneous public announcement blaming Pakistan for the attack not only led to speculation about a possible false flag operation to target Pakistan and it told the world that India was going to react—and Pakistan duly noted this as pointed out by Imran Khan in his hard hitting address at the event. India reacted through a botched badly executed hasty attack across the international border and then foolishly claimed that over 340 terrorists under training in a camp had been precision attacked and killed. By now the world knows the attack felled a few trees and nothing else and the Indian claims were lies fed to an ignorant public. As pointed out by Imran Khan Pakistan responded in a mature restrained manner staying within a carefully calibrated threshold. India again botched its response because two of its planes were shot down and in the ensuing panic it downed its own helicopter. Again Pakistan showed maturity when Imran Khan ordered the release of the capture Indian pilot. India’s claim of having shot down a Pakistani F-16 also turned out to be a lie. All this did not stop Mr. Modis election rhetoric against Pakistan and he fought and won reelection on a platform of hate against not just Pakistan but all the Muslims in India.
Mr. Modi then proceeded to annex the disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir by revoking Article 370 0f the Indian Constitution blatantly disregarding international norms and UN Resolutions. He followed this up by the Registry and the Citizenship Act targeting Muslims without even a fig leaf of propriety. People were reminded of the earlier attack by BJP and RSS mobs on the Babri Mosque and the state orchestrated attacks on Sikhs in Delhi in 1984 that led to the slaughter of over 3000 Sikhs. Also remembered was the 2002 carnage in Gujarat under the Chief Minister ship of Mr. Modi in 2002 when over a thousand Muslims were killed. So there is a pattern there and a long term strategy is easily discernible. This brings us to the most recent carnage in Delhi—no doubt part of the overall pattern and not a random occurrence.
For over two months the protests against the Citizenship Act targeting Muslims were peaceful then all hell broke loose. The trigger was the statement by the state home minister blaming a conspiracy for the protests. This was followed by violence unleashed by the Police egged on a minister with the explicit aim of targeting Muslims and killing them. Hindu mobs motivated by slogans of hate against Muslims and extolling Hindu supremacy led to mosques being burnt and their physical destruction a la Babri Mosque by physical attacks. North East Delhi burnt as crazed Hindu mobs rampaged and any delusions based on government denials were dispelled by actual videos of the ongoing violence. A judge of the Delhi High Court ruled to save some injured Muslims and he has since been transferred. And all this during President Trumps’ visit to India.
The carnage in Delhi has left Indians stunned and brave voices are telling the world the reality of India under the Modi-Amit Shah-Duval-RSS regime. The earlier police excesses in UP where the BJP rules when linked to what has happened in Delhi and to the earlier events of Muslim killings under the BJP all point to the fact that the Modi government will continue ignoring the decline in the economy and keep pushing on a radical Hindu dominated political platform with no let-up. Any one daring to confront the BJP-RSS is quickly taken care of—as was the case with the judge in Delhi who tried to give judicial relief to people being killed. The model for the future is clear. Kashmir continues in lockdown and this is all part of the overall agenda against Muslims. Expect more of the same and worse because Mr. Modi has put the future of India on the line in pursuit of his Nazi inspired Hindu supremacist ambitions.
Prime Minister Imran Khan has repeatedly drawn the worlds’ attention to the plight of the Kashmiri people. He has also indicated the very real danger of an India engineered conflict scenario that could escalate to dangerous levels. Pakistan needs to very carefully evaluate the evolving situation in Afghanistan as its ungoverned spaces have been used by India to undermine Pakistan. Pakistan also needs to be vigilant on its eastern border because of India’s unprovoked violations on the Line of Control as well as in Baluchistan. The fact that Prime Minister Imran Khan backed by military diplomacy has given a new positive dimension to Pakistan’s foreign relations needs to be fully exploited to get out of the FATF situation and focus on the economy and governance. There is speculation that the Prime Minister wants inflation to come down by April and that he wants to freeze oils and gas prices till June when the policy rate may be brought down is good news as is the ongoing IMF program that keeps us linked to international finance. The breather this gives to the economy is good but the structural changes needed and being implemented should not be sacrificed for political gains. There is a need to calibrate political stability, make Parliament functional and take steps to encourage business activity and wealth creation. Falling oil prices are a gift from heaven. The internal security environment being provided by the security and military forces gives the space for government to perform. The best bet for Pakistan is to strengthen itself internally to resist the threat from India.
(Spearhead Analyses are collaborative efforts and not attributable to an individual)